Business commentary: Patrick Hosking
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Bradford & Bingley gave us a glimpse on Friday of how dicey things were early in July. The bank came uncomfortably close to becoming a second Northern Rock. It admits that customers were rushing to pull out their savings as the bank repeatedly failed to nail down rescue financing.
“It was a scary time, not just for us but for the whole world,” Rod Kent, the chairman, told me. The bank suffered “hundreds of millions of pounds” in net withdrawals as rescue deal after rescue deal crumbled. Kent declines to speculate on the economic and political damage if B&B had failed. “I'm not a historian, I don't write 'what-if?' novels,” he says.
But it seems unlikely that Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, could have survived a second big bank failure on his watch. The same goes for Mervyn King, the Bank of England Governor, and Hector Sants, head of the Financial Services Authority.
It might be fanciful, but a collapse could even have brought down the Government if things had got seriously messy and the contagion had spread. Governments tend to fall after moments of national humiliation. It's hard to overstate the damage done last September by TV images of queues of panicking Rock depositors beamed around the world.
Happily, fourth time lucky, B&B got its £400 million and ministers and regulators are still in their jobs. But it took some serious arm-twisting by the FSA to get the big battalions of high street banking and insurance to rally round and ensure that a deal was done.
The financial world did not cover itself in glory over B&B. The company misled its shareholders over the need for new capital, tolerated hopelessly inadequate management information systems and inexplicably allowed underwriters to its first abortive capital-raising to wriggle free. The external advisers appeared asleep at the wheel, the underwriters were not exactly loyal to the client and one rescue bidder, the private equity group TPG, fled back to America at the first sign of trouble.
Mr Kent is confident that B&B has sufficient capital to weather whatever the icy winds of the property market throw at it. Its franchise remains more or less intact. And, whisper it quietly, its specialisation in buy-to-let lending has not yet been proved to be the dumb strategy its rivals suggest. Tenant demand is strong, rents are still rising, voids (periods when properties are empty) are falling.
The pain is far from over, however. Arrears are rising, margins are thinning, fraud is on the up and the wholesale funding window is still largely closed. And it's unclear how supportive the bank's new shareholders are going to be: the lock-up preventing sales expires on September 10.
What is undeniable, though, is that things could have been a whole lot worse. In Bingley, and in Downing Street.
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400M won't last long, and if the rental market is in such positive shape, how come B&B's defaulters are growing in number leading to more lost funds. A 27M loss don't help. Too much into BTL which is very bad news now. So much for their ads boasting security for your savings.
Np, England, UK
They are toast. Property is down 10pct so we are told. More like 30 and will go to 80 or more by the time this has finished. Any more suckers want to throw good money after bad into B and B deserve what they get - nothing. Price target - zero. Lets see how many "gurus" are left standing in 5 years.
Jon, Bath,
When will we see Kent and Crawshaw and the rest of the motley crew in Dartmoor Gaol, They have destroyed hundreds of thousands of peoples lives the small shareholders need Justice.
The big shareholders should cancel the huge pay off's to the montebanc directors, the pensionholders also want justice.
John Fulham, liverpool, England
Happily, fourth time lucky, B&B got its £400 million.
Well yes, it did. But it only got a 400 million pound loan from people too daft to know that it was bust, or too greedy to recognise that they were throwing good money after bad.
eric cmapbell, harrogate, uk
Rents are up... I remember reading in The Times only days ago that new rental properties are flooding the market and driving down rents. Also that those most vunerable to negative equity are BTL landlords fooled by developers into buying many overpriced flats, each one leveraged again the last.
Phil, Welwyn, UK
Still might collapse yet.
albert hall, hove, england
NuLab have run this country in exactly the same way as Bradford & Bingley and Northern Rock were run! That explains why we're in such a mess!
Andrew, St. Ives, Cambridgeshire,
B&B aren't out of the woods yet, not by a long shot. If you choose to continue to save with them, you would do well to keep a close eye on developments this autumn.
MR, Doncaster, Yorkshire
George Abayo. You are so right.
Ron, Exeter,
It has collapsed and it has brought down the government - haven't you noticed? Hands up anybody who would put their life savings with them Monday morning.
Victor M., Cricklewood, London,
400 Million won't go very far if the Chancellor is right!
R James, Clifton, UK
One wonders if the collective greed in turning our building societies to plc banks led by irresponsible imbeciles with cast-iron get-out clauses is a disaster of our own making. Do we always need to follow America in business as if it were the only model?
George Abayo, london, uk
I'm hearing rumours that B&B have only had a short term reprieve & will be back to Northern Wreck status in a very short time.
RM, Poole, UK