Martin Waller: Business Commentary
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Right. That’s that done, then. Now what?
Events of the past week have brought home the reason why Henry Paulson’s $700 billion bailout, or whatever meaningless figure you wish to conjure, is essential, if perhaps not enough. Step back seven days, and the argument was that public money was being pledged to banks to bail out bankers whose excesses had made that pledge necessary.
What is apparent now is the extent that the seizing up of the world financial system is the problem of us all, and not just a few overpaid Wall Street plutocrats. That European Schadenfreude that saw it all as the fault of the turbo-charged Anglo-Saxon financial system has taken a battering after the bailouts of Fortis and Dexia of Belgium, Hypo Real Estate of Germany and Iceland’s Glitnir, the near-collapse of Italy’s Unicredit, and the government support packages for Irish and Greek banks.
Part of the problem, politically and philosophically, of putting together the Paulson package has been the impossibility of decoupling the interests of the bankers and the banks. It is unfeasible to declare Year Zero and ensure that the banks survive but their overpaid executives go to the killing fields. Bonuses, once paid, cannot legally be clawed back, however pleasing might be the prospect of financiers joining the rest of us in the queues for the soup kitchens.
Someone has to run the institutions after the rescue. Note the re-emergence of John Thain, the former head of Merrill Lynch and the New York Stock Exchange, as putative chief executive of Bank of America, one of the institutions most likely to survive unscathed.
The next question is, will it be enough? Frankly, the odds are not good. There are plenty of signs that the credit crunch has spread out of finance into the real economy. Another 159,000 off US non-farm payrolls in September is just one. If corporations, encouraged to take on too much debt in good times by those same banks, now find their access to credit limited, they will seek to reduce borrowings, delay investment and lay off workers. Those workers, and everyone else worried about their jobs and houses, will stop spending.
Those corporations see falling sales, whether of consumer goods or of their components – note the abrupt fall-off in demand reported this week by Wolfson, which makes chips for iPhones, for example – and lay off more workers. Meanwhile, more entrepreneurial smaller firms, which have traditionally provided much of the impetus for economic growth, are even more constrained by their bankers. This is how it goes, down and down in an endless spiral.
At the end of that spiral there are two futures. One is Götterdämmerung, a financial catastrophe that does indeed bear comparison with the aftermath of 1929 – and please, disregard anyone who claims we are there, or anywhere near there, yet.
The other is a sadder, shabbier world perhaps more comparable to Britain in the 1950s, where luxuries were just that, mostly inaccessible, a step up the housing ladder meant years of penury ahead and credit was almost unheard of. Worry if you work in finance, estate agency, retail or other vulnerable areas, or if you are unable to trade out of your debts on your existing salary.
Among the survivors, of course, like cockroaches in a nuclear winter, will be many of Gordon Brown’s 600,000 or more workers taken on to the public payroll over the past decade, along with their copper-bottomed pensions. A world inherited by diversity inspectors and wheelie bin snoops. Dear God.
Have a nice weekend.
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Yeah, have a cheap dig at the Public Sector "cockroaches". I'd like one of you financial geniuses to tell me where we'd be without the Public Sector buying £bs worth of goods and services from the Private Sector, and its workers paying taxes (yes, like anyone else) and buying from the Private Sector
Homer, London,
Naturally banks get the blame but a great deal of the blame should fall specifically on the debt rating agencies and those in the banks who approved the use of the securitised mortgages. These are the real villains. The traders/dealers only sold well that which was approved.
Michael, Warnham, UK
Of course as always, financial crisis always go back to the Ponzi like financial scheme of fractional reserve banking. It is that historical tradition that multiplies money during credit expansion but will annihilate money during credit contraction.
Jake Peachey, Scott City, USA
"get the first boat to the old colonies" . . . If you want opportunity you better catch one to Canada, not here, especially seeing how taxes are going to go after "The One" becomes prez!
Oh, the bailout will work (sort of), but it is bitter for the reasons Mr. Waller states in his fourth paragraph.
Hap, Bellingham, US
Not a word about ethics, social solidarity, more of the same. Tthe people will continue to be swindled by lawyers, accountants and banks and private monopolies.
paul, London,
Look on the bright side: none of us were any happier during the decadence of the last 40 years.
Maybe subsistence derived from your own efforts will make you content, compared to that 'prosperity'which was built upon artifice and the suffering of others.
John, Brest, France
Why have we got to rescue the banking system? Let it implode and then spend tax payers money picking up the pieces. It is the only way to really purge the rot that has reached to the very core of the international banking system. Why save a rotten apple so that it can infect all the other apples?
Simon, London, UK
"And please disregard anyone who claims we are there , or anywhere there yet"
Talk is cheap Mr Waller. Put all your assets on the line to back up your words and we will begin to take you seriously. Your mates made the same worthless noises about the housing market: why should we believe you now?
anthony, london, england
I grew up in the 50's. If we are to save the world we need to get back there. I remember people being happy with what they had, not much perhaps but jobs were for life. We did'nt need credit. Money does not always equal happyness, look at todays mess.
John, Buckley, Flintshire
You have all just been conned !
OZ, Perth, Australia
Hey, thanks Martin. Always nice to be called a 'cockroach'. Would it make you feel better to see us NHS nurses suffer a bit more?
Ben Hall, Haywards Heath, West Sussex
The 1950s were not so bad. I grew up on a council estate in the North of England in that period. My parents had very little money not even a bank account, but they did have a decent sized garden in which they grew their own vegetables and kept chickens.They did not need to lock their door at night
sheila, LEICESTER,
It's easy and natural to point one's anger at the speculators but the real failure was for Pension Fund managers to lend out shares for others to devalue - why would they do that? ; for banks and fund managers to expose their deposits to private equity to speculate with - were they stupid?
david, Gloucs,
It will work; It will let the guilty walk away; That's all it was intended to do.
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
From L Davison of Sydney - far, far away - comes a very lofty and high-minded view. Those struggling with ballooning taxes, oppressive bureaucracy and petty officialdom can be forgiven for feeling angry. Condescension from the other side of the world is not what they need.
Neil, Galloway, Scotland
We are in the 'eye of the storm' as they say, but unlike a hurricane this one is going to last a lot longer. There will now have to be great political and social change over the next decade or so - a smaller Public sector & less consumerism , but how do we get there?
Stephen Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
May not work? Won't work more like! It's a measure of last resort pilloried by real experts like Soros. Devised by those responsible for this mess through their greed and inability to forsee coincident events. Money is just paper as events will soon prove. Hold tight on this ride to a better world!
Chris, London,
This was all planed and there is nothing we can do!
Dave Bridge, Southport, UK
We'll all be working for the Government soon.
Maybe Karl Marx was right after all ?
Francis Cousins, Wrington, UK
While the article overall isn't bad, it seems unpleasantly mean spirited to describe people who don't lose their jobs as "like cockroaches in a nuclear winter". In fact it seems like pandering to the worst instincts of ones smallest-minded readers.
Laurence Davison, Sydney, Australia
Sounds like the Millenium bug!
Tim, Canberra, Australia
I believe we are in for a very very hard times, I think the baleout in the USA does not touch the surface of the problem and Gordon Brown is incapable of doing anything practical for the tax payers of this country hence enter good old Peter who can now provide the sleeze.
christine marshall, tunbridge wells, England
The only logical thing to do if you are an educated, skilled worker, especially with youth in your side, is to get the first boat to the old colonies. Much like many did in the fifties.
John P_T, reigate,
The bailout much like throwing a cocktail party to celebrate AA members one year without a drink will not work. Those in charge of making this bailout necessary will not change. Giving the alcohol to these addicted fools will only serve to further push world economies even lower.
Richard Williams, oklahoma city, usa