Patrick Hosking Business commentary
Over 900 restaurants nationwide. Find your nearest now
Is Britain simply a bigger version of Iceland? Certainly the City of London is starting to look a bit too much like Reykjavik, but with taller buildings and fewer cod. It is an exaggeration, but not that much of an exaggeration, to liken the UK to the broken, bankrupt North Atlantic island.
Like Iceland, we boast a huge banking industry out of all proportion to the overall economy. Like Iceland, we have an unfunded depositor lifeboat scheme totally unequipped to grapple with failing banks. Like Iceland, our national output is dwarfed by the vast liabilities of our banks. Like Iceland, our banks for years scoffed at relying on domestic depositors to fund their activities and developed a dangerous addiction to wholesale money. Like Iceland, our Government is poised to go on a borrowing spree to try to soften the pain. Like Iceland, our currency is on the skids as foreign investors pull out.
Our problems are not nearly so extreme, of course, but we’d be foolish to feel terribly smug as the International Monetary Fund and Scandinavian neighbours go in to bathe Iceland’s wounds.
The scale of our problems has still not been understood. In essence the domestic banks are largely bust. The Government’s £500 billion bailout plan is primarily designed not to keep banks lending to small firms and to homebuyers but to prevent an unimaginable financial calamity.
Banks provide the very foundations and plumbing of the entire economy. A failure of confidence in them could still bring the entire capitalist edifice tumbling down.
It suits ministers, however, to maintain the bogus claim that the bailout is about sustaining bank lending. True, that would be a helpful side-effect, but is not the main purpose. Indeed, a gentle and gradual reduction in the indebtedness of individuals and companies is still needed.
At the risk of hyperbole, we should not be worrying about whether this is going to be a thin Christmas for retailers (it is), but whether Britain and the West are about to plunge into a years-long economic Dark Age – complete with mass unemployment and social unrest.
Taxpayers are already facing a loss of almost £10 billion on their investment in Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and HBOS even before the Government hands over a penny. That is what their languishing share prices are saying.
The recession has barely begun and the banks are on their knees. Scores of billions of pounds of bad debts are yet to come, as companies and individuals default on loans.
When in early October officials mapped out the bailout with banks, they insisted that those banks stress-tested their balance sheets for a serious downturn. In the six weeks since then, the outlook has darkened swiftly. The worst-case scenario imaginable then may well be looking like a central-case scenario now.
Richard Pym, executive chairman of Bradford & Bingley, the nationalised bank, told MPs this week that the bank had already stress-tested its mortgage book to see how it would cope with a 25 per cent drop in house prices (answer: £600-800 million of losses). But he no longer regarded this as sufficient and was busy putting much larger house price falls into his equations.
The fattened-up capital cushions of the banks will be enough for a while, but banks remain colossolly levered. It wouldn’t take much of a deterioration in their assets to wipe out all the fresh capital raised. The banks may well have to come back to taxpayers for more. They will be given it, too, albeit at the price of total nationalisation.
One third of Icelanders now want to emigrate, things have got so bad, a recent survey found. The proportion of Britons with similar wanderlust may not be so different before this economic agony passes.
The moment your toes touch the sand and your gaze meets water, you know you’re in the Bahamas
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
05/2005
£13,500
08/2008
£109,950
2005 / 55
£59,500
Great car insurance deals online
Circa £60,000
The Army Benevolent Fund
London
£28k+ Basic + Commission
Drummond Selection
London
12-15 days a year, c £12K
Springboard
London
£Competitive
American Airlines
Heathrow, London
Great Investment, River Views
One and Two Bed Apartments
Wandsworth Town
Times Online Property Search will help you Find It
like nothing on Earth!
.
Must end 28 Feb 2009!
Save up to 25%
Amazing Far East Offers
Visit Malaysia from £755pp
Great travel insurance deals online
.
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Usary should go. Capatalism is not gonna die soon. The buying and selling of any commodity for a profit is as old as man itself. Only lazy folks with a fat benefit cheque would like to see the system collapse as they have no actual input in the form of labour.
pete, London, UK
I think they left it a bit late; the 'capitalist edifice' cannot be saved now.
gary, winchester, uk
This crisis, in the years to come, may bring down the capitalist system as we know it today.However.As things get worse,the silver lining here is,that it may also get governments to again (or for the first time) be afraid of their people as it becomes clear that representative gov't just doesnt work
Eli, London, Russia
The strength of any nation is its manufacturing and natural resources. England has North Sea oil but does it manufacture anything? Look to Ireland for your inspiration. Low taxes and high tech industries are making a huge difference.
russ, Franklin, North Carolina USA
I hope Obama is the FDR
Jim Miller, Huntington,WV, USA
watch www.zeitgeistmovie.com people!
jan, london, GB
Both the US and the UK are more "service" and specialty manufacturing economies these days.
One of the things that may drag out the recovery is that everybody has pretty much rung all the "productivity" out our latest tech wave, the IT age. So the recovery might be at the end of a long flat spot
Douglas R. Chandler, Plano, Texas
UK Problem is worse, taxpayer will pay in UK for the rescue of the banks in Iceland the foreign creditors will have to pay not the people of Iceland
Helgi, Reykjavik,
The UK amazes me, u don't seem to produce anything much of value, yet your currency provides you with spending power for imported goods we here in Canada could only dream of; despite our massive trade surpluses, balanced budgets, vast oil deposits, our gold, high tech & manufacturing, what gives?
John, Ottawa, Canada
come and emigrate to western australia or queensland,the weather is warm most of the year so outdoor activities are low cost,low heating bills ,plenty of work ,you can still buy a house for under 1250000 pounds in a lot of places and the economy is still ticking over ok.very good lifestyle indeed.
henry, mandurah , australia
What makes me laugh is that the problem was caused by people borrowing money that was not there. Now the government is doing it. It never took a rocket scientist in the first place to see this all coming. How all these bankers, economist and government advisors couldnt see it is beyond me.
simon, Edinburgh, UK
Let it all slide to its natural low. Most people have become to greedy and focused on worth and having more. This is just the world's natural way of rebalancing things. Maybe now the focus will be on more important things than a new car with a better badge.
Charlie Cheshire, Wensleydale Well, UK
The economic situation is becoming critical. I wonder how anyone can say that Mr Brown is doing a good job of cleaning up the mess he made. We need action now. The government should start lending to companies now and cut the rate of VAT now!
Phil, Watford,
Remarkably, the BNP's Nick Griffin has been saying something very similar for a long time. I suggest people go the the BNP website & read it.
My own opinion is that Globalisation can only make everything worse. International trade is fine, but it needs to be very carefully balanced.
Herbert Thornton, Victoria, Canada
"mass unemployment and social unrest. "
It is a legitimate concern that inner-city populations of poor people will ignite in a larger version of the 70's riots.
Will the banking collapse result in troops having to keep order on the streets? It is not impossible.
Pete Tesseyman, Birmingham,
The weather is similar to Iceland too...!
Tom W, cheshire,
Well that's it then. I'm going off to the canal to see what I can catch!
colin, wolverhampton, uk
Great article. Alarming, but well thought out analysis. I wish that people had listened to the warnings like this before it was too late. Depression is on the way, 5 years of economic gloom and political turmoil worldwide. Very alarming, never give the banks so much responsibility ever again.
Paul, Carlow, Ireland
When we get out of this mess we are going to have to find another, non-delusional way to make our national living. Playing around with property adds little value and finance is much the same if it can't be constrained to lower risk strategies. Now is the time to be thinking about this key issue.
Colin, shrewsbury,
It just gets better and better! Good article, well done. Now where can I put my cash? Gold, sliver, mattress-anyone with an answer?
MGrelton, London, UK
The best concise summary of our present circumstances that I have seen.
Gordon, Kirkcaldy, Scotland
when iceland went bankrupt it was local but if the city goes under it will drag the entire world with it. The key statement you made was we borrowed everyone else money. The entire world has a stake in the city it truely an international problem just as much for the lenders as the borrowers
paul gilboy, newcastle , england
Although the title is catching and an interesting thought, it is getting tiresome reading such negative articles.
I'm not an expert and would like a balanced view. Experience tells me this situation is probably an opportunity for most people even if only in a relatively small way.
Peter, Lancashire, UK
Mr Hosking brings to light some uncomfortable similarities. One wonders then whether the same conditions will apply for the UK as enforced for Iceland by Mr Brown if and when he seeks a loan from the IMF? These conditions could leave you in more debt per person than the Germans after WW I.
Engilbert Sigurdsson, Reykjavik, Iceland
What nobody seems to realise is that the real damage and destruction is done during the boom, not the bust: the bust is merely the inevitable manifestation of the earlier damage (although much of the damage often manifests itself more subtly, but no less destructively, during the boom itself).
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
In 1975 (under Labour) the UK became only the second democracy, after Iceland, to survive an inflation rate over 25% without a revolution.
In 1976 (under Labour) the IMF bailed the UK out. The next advanced economy to get the IMF in was Iceland, in 2008.
Spooky or what?
Dave, Slough,
Spot on. Well said. Same goes for Australia.
David, Melbourne, Australia
Things are not so bad, yet!
People in Iceland will start feeling the pain in Jan/Feb/March. Most people still have work, but many have been laid off and are working their 3 month notice period.
The worst is yet to come...
Omar, Reykjavik, Iceland