David Wighton: Business Editor’s commentary
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Mamma Mia! If you thought things were bad here, take a trip across the North Sea to Sweden, where the central bank yesterday cut interest rates by an unprecedented 1.75 percentage points to 2 per cent.
That was far more than the one percentage point cut that the market had expected but it is not really a surprise given that, like the UK, Sweden is in recession.
As in Britain, Swedish employers are shedding workers at a rate not seen since the early 1990s, consumer confidence has fallen through the stripped-pine floorboards and unions are urging state aid for manufacturers.
Like Gordon Brown, the Swedish leader, Fredrik Reinfeldt, plans a huge fiscal stimulus to revive the economy, with tax cuts and raised infrastructure spending both likely.
Predictably, the Swedish krona fell to a fresh low against the euro on the rate cut, continuing a rout that has seen it lose 14 per cent of its value against the single currency in less than four months.
That is even worse than the fall suffered by sterling against the euro during the same period. And, for an economy as dependent on exports as Sweden’s, it is probably no bad thing.
Curiously, though, while the usual siren voices here are trying to lure Britain on to the rocks of euro entry, there seems to be no such debate in Sweden – which, of course, voted against joining the euro five years ago. That may well be because the Riksbank, like the Bank of England, now appears to be in control of events.
Contrast their bold rate cuts with the rather half-hearted three-quarter point reduction offered up yesterday by the European Central Bank.
We should not be surprised at the ECB’s timidity. These are the people, it is worth recalling, who actually raised interest rates by a quarter of a point in July – at a time when, as we now know, Germany and Italy were already in recession and the Spanish and Irish property markets were in meltdown.
The ECB has been behind the curve from the start and continues to be. It is bewildering that it did not reduce rates by more yesterday given that, as in the UK, there is now a serious risk of eurozone inflation undershooting target levels.
Its feeble response to events should be borne in mind as sterling approaches parity with the euro – when demands for UK euro entry are likely to intensify.
We should not be fooled. The exchange rate alone is not a reason for joining the euro. And, in any case, it is highly unlikely that the eurozone’s exporters would want to lock in, forever, a conversion rate offering such a competitive gift to their UK counterparts.
The pound hit an all-time low against a basket of currencies yesterday ahead of the Bank of England’s one percentage point cut in interest rates. It was below $1.45 against the dollar at one stage but recovered after the announcement of the cut, which was less that many investors had expected.
There are still those that fret about a “sterling crisis”. But the fall in the pound should be seen as part of the solution not part of the problem. This certainly appears to be the Bank of England’s view.
In any case, while sterling could go lower yet, sentiment could well swing back next year. The dollar has benefited from US investors repatriating funds, a process that may not have much further to go. And if the ECB continues to act so timidly, the markets may conclude that economic recovery in the eurozone may be slower than in Britain.
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The author is wrong in claiming there has not been a debate on joining the euro. Only last week did Swedish media raise the question and an attempted debate was started, however, Anders Borg and Reinfeldt quickly dismissed the idea.
Filip, London / Malmo, UK / Sweden
How long can an island with a population of 50 million and limited natural resources can maintain an overvalued currency? Not long as you will see. Unless it reoccupies former colonies and uses their gold, diamonds and oil. Decisions decisions..
William, London, UK
It's over a year since Sterling's initial fall against the Euro. By conventional economic thinking our manufacturers should be very happy, able to compete once more against imports from almost everywhere. This hasn't happened - so there is a more fundamental problem with our currency & economy.
Steve, Eastleigh, England
Not sure whats going on here but its in no Englishman's interest to have a falling pound (no pun intended).
Its clear we need a strong currency. We import everything & export global but expensive services. However our services' are expensive because we are the Rolls Royce of the service sector.
Camsy, Birmingham,
How can a 3/4 percent point cut be "timid", if a 1 pecentage point (just a little bit bigger than the former) be a "bold" move? Smaks of bad faith.
Also, it seems that all central banks, BoE and ECB included all seem to be cutting rates at the same time. Why is the ECB singled out?
William, London,
Why is the ECB not reducing interest rates? because they are not influenced by politicians like the Bank of England. The central bank of Europe wants a strong healthy economy for the long term what possible reason could they have for anything else? so they do their best for the economy not the herd.
paul, orleans, france
The currency shift will require the UK to make more of its own consumption rather than buy it from abroad. This is not a bad thing just life, like having to pay off student loans by working. My company has a strong order book as we take market share from importers.
Jon, Glasgow,
Have Sweden employed Brown as the Swedish Chef ?(The Muppets - literally if they have) - wouldn't that be good for the UK economy! They could have Brown sauce all day long, and our economy could do a real kecthup with where it should be.
Anton, Wakefield,
The current ECB rates @ 2.50% are reasonable. Why go below? The problem with te pound is that it has been overvalued for a decade or so. It's only back to normal. however parity would be nonsense. At 85 p to the euro, the UK should ask for membership and dump the sterling like Europeans did .
pascal-pierre, Dinan, brittany, European union, france
Mark, Munich - so if we didn't have floating currecnies how would we be able to tell whether, for example, it was in our national interest to export more or import more? More than laissez-faire, floating currencies are just common sense. Without them, we would squander many valuable resources.
Bertie, London,
If this in "in hand", God spare us from a calamity!
Howard, Chester,
For a net importer a weak currency can never be good. Tell me what you want, something smells wrong!
Ivan, Newcaslte,
Ive never understood how Laissez faire economists can support floating currencies. A falling/rising currency supports one sector of the economy at the expense of another - exactly like raising taxes on one sector to subsidise another - independently of the quality of any particular business.
Mark, Munich,
Doesn't the UK run a peristent trade deficit, imports being greater than exports? When the pound falls, if export prices drop by 30% import prices will go up more than 40%. Also many high-value manufactured products (like cars) contain a lot of imported parts, so how can this be better overall?
Rick Hamilton, Tokyo, Japan