Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Surging fuel and food costs sent the price of goods leaving factories soaring last month at the fastest annual pace for 16 years, raising fears that persistent inflationary pressures will thwart steep interest rate cuts to bolster a vulnerable economy.
Much worse than expected official figures yesterday showed that prices at factory gates leapt by 0.5 per cent in December, lifting their annual rate of increase to 11.2 per cent - the highest since August 1991, when Britain was stuck in the depths of the last recession.
The bleak news sparked new warnings from City economists that entrenched price pressures threaten to hamper the Bank of England’s ability to underpin conditions with aggressive rate cuts, even as growth falters.
City fears that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee may be left hamstrung by inflation were reinforced as the data also showed faster than expected gains in raw material and energy prices for manufacturers last month that are yet to feed through.
Cost pressures for factories are being stoked by sharp falls in the pound, as these drive up bills for imported materials and fuel.
Sterling’s losses gathered pace as it sank to a new record low yesterday against the euro, which hit a new high of 76.08p. The euro’s gains were boosted by renewed dollar weakness, with the greenback’s latest losses helping to push gold prices to record levels above $900 an ounce, at $914.
Economists said that while the MPC was still poised to cut rates next month, after disappointing hopes for a move last week, simmering price pressures could handicap any attempts to take aggressive action. Ross Walker, of RBS, said: “This does serve to highlight the inflationary consequences of a weaker currency, and is likely to constrain the pace and extent of rate cuts.”
Analysts said that the Bank would be particularly worried that not only were cost pressures for industry intense, but that manufacturers were succeeding in passing these down the pipeline to the high street by charging higher prices for their goods.
The jump in the cost of goods leaving factories last month was driven almost wholly by food and fuel prices. Prices for manufactured food products leapt by 7.4 per cent year on year, the biggest rise since records began in 1992, while petrol product prices rose by 20.5 per cent year on year, the strongest increase since March 2000.
Upward pressure on food prices was underlined as the cost of home-produced food materials rose by 28 per cent year on year last month, a record rate fuelled by soaring wheat prices.
In another headache for the Bank, “core” inflation for finished products other than food and fuel also hit a nine-month high of 2.6 per cent.
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If the government and its advisers revealed the true inflation rate [probably 16%] then my income support would have to go up from £59 per week to £100. Sorry, job seeker allowance - I am always looking for work but have hit the glass ceiling - too old, asthmatic, woman
jane, Fenland, UK
you have to look at the bigger picture , gordon browne said he would join the euro when currancy were fairly close before he would go ahead . the goverment has been planning this a while . if the pound remains strong , he will never find a strong enough argument to commit to it , take a look now we are almost at the door . take a deep breath and prepare to leave the u.k. . our strength is all gone . so the goverment will make no last minute ditch to save sterling . all the people gordon especially has been putting his money in foreign exchange a while now so he is making a huge profit before he cuts our throats .
good luck europeans ,
denton, haverfordwest, u.k.
Inflation across the board could be cut by this greedy government reducing the tax it takes from fuel. When the raw material is incresing in price the duty should be reduced - there net income would remain the same
john, clevedon,
worse than expected? it was bloody obvious. Lets get everyone tied in to 3 year deals at 2% eh? you know its those damned public sector workers fault really.
tony watt, hemel hempstead,
For a whlle I have thought we are living through a period of high inflation despite the figures.
Pretty much all living expenses: rail fares, food, mortgage payments, restaurant prices, utility bills, corner shop prices, etc, etc, are increasing significantly month on month.
James Lealand, London,
3 year pay deals are required because inflation is rising at such a rate that Govt. will not be able to pay anything like inflation related deals!!
mike cassidy, oxford, england
Core inflation only 2.6%. No problem. I mean who needs food and fuel? The CPI inflation rate is the Government's tool for avoiding "winters of discontent" If they acknowledged the actual rate that effects us all in everyday living, the Country would be overwhelmed with wage demands.
Frederick Phillips, St Johns,
So much for Gordon Brown's "end of the boom-bust economy"!
It looks like we're heading for falling house prices, a weak Pound and a large increase in inflation. This will mean higher wage rises, higher interest rates, higher unemployment and a recession.
All Gordon Brown has done is delay the "bust" by encouraging personal indebtedness, reckless government spending and borrowing and fiddling the statistics. What a joke he has turned out to be. The "Rusty Chancellor", an expert in financial mismanagement and now, a weak, inept Prime Minister - he's so bad that he makes Blair look good.
Peter Jones, Chelmsford,
The government has added at least 5% to fuel prices, with its increases in duty with the addition of VAT, and has been raking it in with the increases in gas and electricity (VAT 17.5% for non-domestic fuel, and 5% for domestic). Then Brown has the cheek to blame the public sector for all of its woes and wants them to get a below inflation pay rise. Mind you, the government, under Brown, blames everybody else for its financial mis-management.
Davdi Leslie, Perth, Scotland
Food rose by 28%, year on year? Damn. That's scary.
Justin, Nr Lincoln, UK