Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Soaring costs for fuel and foodstuffs and the slump in the pound pushed prices for goods leaving factories up at the fastest pace in more than two decades last month.
The record inflation at factory gates inflamed fears over the threat of still steeper increases in Britain's rising cost of living and dealt a blow to hopes for a new interest rate cut next month. City economists said that the inflationary threat revealed by yesterday's official figures was likely to scupper a widely expected June cut in base rates.
Anxieties over price pressures were fuelled by a spate of warnings yesterday from manufacturers and consumer groups of steep increases still to come in the cost of items from utilities bills to a pint of milk. Yesterday's figures showed that prices charged by manufacturers leapt by
1.4 per cent last month, in the biggest monthly increase since 1986. April's jump left factory gate prices up 7.5 per cent from a year earlier, also a record.
The steep rise in output price inflation came as manufacturers passed on some of their sharply higher costs for energy and raw materials, which registered a record 2.4 per cent gain last month. That left industry costs up by a massive 23.1 per cent from a year earlier, setting yet another record.
The driving force was the hefty increase in the cost of oil and its knock-on effect on petrol prices that are already above £5 a gallon. Crude oil prices, which yesterday moved above $126 for the first time, climbed by 6.4 per cent last month and were up by 63 per cent in a year.
Intense concern over the soaring cost of food was also stoked by yesterday's figures, as prices for food leaving UK factories rose at an annual rate of 9.3 per cent. Cost pressures for supermarkets and across the economy are being heightened by a sharp slide in the pound, down 12 per cent over the past year, boosting import bills. Imported food prices are up by a fifth in a year, while import prices for goods as a whole are up more than 10 per cent.
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Given that it is not the job of the B of E to intervene to stop house prices falling, (they did not when pices were rising), then there are compelling reasons to raise interest rates.
Inflation is a real curse,which,to my amazement, still does not seem to be fully realised.
nic, paphos, cyprus
History may well show that the cut last December was the biggest mistake that the BOE have ever made since Black Wednesday.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Oil prices are just not going to come down to anything like we've been used to in the past. So it's hard to see how the BOE will be able to justify further rate cuts when the government's inflation target is 2%. So stagflation awaits? We're all going to have to do our bit to conserve resources.
HC, London, United Kingdom
Why does this government seem so determined to give our money away. Each time they lower bank rate they are simply helping to refil the coffers of the banks who refuse to pass on reductions to borrowers but have no hesitation in stealing from savers. Bank rate needs to rise.
Bob, BERKSHIRE,
I agree that the papers are forever hyping hopes of rate cuts but I think "most" prefer the rate to go down as mortgages, credit cards etc have a much bigger effect than losing interest on savings.
Mal, Torrington,
Don't forget everyone the inflation rate is only 2.4% in the new loony labour planet.
rob, derby, uk
Most Mortgages are fixed. Most first time buyers are loving the drop in prices. No one gives a damn when interest rates fall. Most of us want interest rates to go up to boost the pound and lower inflation. Inflation is the killer that will cause recession, not a reduction in house process.
jeremy, hassocks, sussex
.
There has been too much media 'hype' about rate cut expectation , almost as if that pressure can sway MPC decisions Unless there has been an unnanounced change ,the MPC's mandate is to control inflation full stop.Consumer spending,mortgage costs and the CBI's mantra of lower rates are side issues
Jeff, Epping, Essex
Interest rates need to go up immediately . The BOE have allowed inflation to stay too long above their target without taking action to bring it back down to target. They have allowed inflation to creep up and stay up without taking action.We are all now paying the price.
James, NI, UK
The reason that the country is in its current state is that low interest rates and low inflation has been pursued for too long and is not sustainable in the long term.
Let's see a cut in fuel duty which is probably the most hated tax ever to come to our shores.Put our money back in our pockets!
Soloman, Stirling,
Perhaps our Government should be devalued by the same as our currency plus the real inflation rate.
Let them taste exactly what we get to chew on.
Neil Brown, Maidstone,
Interest rates should have been left alone at 5.75%.
All it did by lowering them was to let the big business vultures in to get their 'pound of flesh'.
Thus fueling inflation.
Running an economy to suit the pocket of 10 million odd house buyers is total stupidity.
Leave the interest rates ALONE.
Sean Hamerton, York., England.
Steve, Paul well said... We often get brain-washed by the media with regards to interest cut and falling house prices... however the real indicators to be considered should be disposable income, inflation and spending power.
marco, London,
Inflation figure of CPI 3.0% just reported. Recession? stagflation? both? A scary mess. BoE caught between the Scylla of falling house prices and the Charybdis of inflation.
Mark, Epping, Essex
Why does this news reduce the chances of a rate cut - inflation is being driven by commodity price increases (food / fuel) and the fall in the value of the pound. These issues reduce the amount of discretionary spend and hence reduced retail sales- either stimulate the economy or face recession
rob, Melksham, UK
Inflation, 3% in April? And the rest!
Richard, Bexhill, Uk
Too right Paul (Coventry). Not only is it a disincentive to save but allows inflation to wreck our society and drive out whats left of our wealth creating sector. We need to maintain a strong pound by cutting public sector spending and thereby reducing the tax burden on all of us.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
Just a small precision: The British Pound has slumped a whopping 14% in the last 12 months, slighlty more than 12% mentioned in this otherwise good article..The problem is that even though the British government cannot do much about it, at least they can stop our best businesses from moving abroad.
thomas, london, uk
It is time that the media stopped hyping up 'hopes' for rate cuts, when most of us want rates to go back up again to maintain the value of our earnings and savings.
Paul, Coventry,