Miles Costello
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Fears of a sustained downturn in world economies was back on the agenda today after Jean Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, gave warning that the worst of the credit crunch has not passed and the economy was still heading for a "very significant market correction".
Mr Trichet, who has fiercely resisted following other policymakers by making interest rate cuts, insisted in an interview today that acting to restrain rampant inflationary growth was the best way to ensure stability and job security.
Mr Trichet told the BBC: “Price stability and credibility in price stability in the medium term is the best way to have a high level of sustainable growth and sustainable job creation.”
His warning came just days after Mr Trichet told a Lisbon conference that overconfidence by markets in the past had fuelled inflationary pressures.
Mr Trichet said this morning: “These are challenging times obviously. We have this accumulation of the oil shock, the food and agro-products shock. What we say at this moment is not to embark in what we call ’second round’ effects.”
He added: “In the first oil shock when we took the wrong decision, embarking on what I call second round effects, we enshrined a high level of inflation. And we created ... mass unemployment in Europe.”
The ECB is facing a tough economic environment across the euro-zone. Inflation hit a record 3.6 per cent in March, against its long-term targeted rate of 2 per cent. The price of oil hit a new high at the end of last week, reaching $127.82 on Friday, before falling back this morning to $125.92 in early trading.
Central bankers have to contend with a weak US economy, as well as high oil and commodity prices.
But under Mr Trichet's leadership, the ECB has held back from cutting its interest rates in the face of the credit crunch.
Mr Trichet has kept the ECB's key interest rate on hold at 4 per cent as his peers in both the UK and America have taken the axe to the cost of borrowing.
Last month, the US cut its main interest rate by a further 25 basis points to 2 per cent.
The Bank of England has cut interest rates three times in recent months. The benchmark borrowing rate in Britain currently stands at 5 per cent.
Last week Mervyn King, the Bank's Governor, signalled that rate cuts in the UK, where borrowing costs are now 5 per cent, were now looking unlikely, possibly before 2010.
Mr Trichet's predictions came amid growing indications of a sharp corrections in a number of UK markets.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicted that house prices, sales and consumer spending would all fall in Britain if current conditions persist.
Collins Stewart, the stockbroker and investment bank, cautioned that revenues had fallen by more than a fifth so far this year, driven by weak capital markets here and in America.
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The Euro is too strong, Euroland is on the brink of diaster -soon to implode! Euorpe has been experiencing hyper-inflation since the introduction of the Euro. Wages have declined in purchasing power over the years. Exports will not keep EL afloat. Even export master Germany won't survive.
Jake, Seattle, USA
Lets hope that the BOE are listening and reverse their mistakes of recent months.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Haven't you seen Wall Street? "Greed is Good!" High it goes bigger the drop... This adjustment is good for all of us.
doug, London,
Trichet is understating. Oil prices will soon go over 200 dollars. Our way of life depends on oil. We won't be able to switch to renewables quickly enough.
Population increase and global warming will make food unaffordable.
25% of species extinct in 35 years. It is the perfect storm.
D.Ward, Walton on Thames, UK
Thank God for common sense prevailing at the ECB. Hopefully Mervyn King will welcome the strong stance on inflation from Jean-Claude Trichet.
In a global world sensible money goes where it's value is maintained and that is not sterling if our interest rate cannot keep pace with inflation.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
Very refreshing to hear what appears to be an acurate & truthful report from a respected quarter, unlike our own mandrins and politicians who would dearly like this crazy house price escalation to continue, compounding individuals' debt and spending from their bricks and mortar 'money boxes'
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Pity Trichet isn't in charge of the Fed and the BOE. They still believe that debt can create growth.
Hil, Southall,
At last some one truthful
A recession lasts a few years
never a few months
Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, Shropshire
Why in the world should leaders who ignored early warning signs of a crunch that they're elected and paid to study and warn us of, have to make any uncomfortable corrections?
Let the people eat cake...
D Griffing, Naples, Long Beach
Trichet must be Paul Volcker's doppelganger methinks. It is very rare these days to hear a Central banker speak with such candour without any spin, obfuscation or mollycoddling of vested interests.
anthony, london, england
This is obviously an economist who is not under the thumb of an elected politician
Its all about house prices folks. The labour government thinks if prices go down they are finished (if they are not already). Therefore, they are prepared to risk long term stability to keep the housing bubble up
A Harris, Kettering, UK
My God, a realist at long last speaks out !!!
The SOONER a few of our Bankers and leaders in the Business sector as well as the press and media speak out and start telling us how it really is with more openness and honesty the sooner we will all crawl out of this mess!
Politicians can`t lie then.
Peter Cosby, Petworth West Sussex, uk
Sense from someone at last.
John, Lincoln,