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An unexpected shopping spree has increased the chance of multiple rises in interest rates by the Bank of England before the end of the year as the central bank seeks to fight inflation.
Retail sales leapt by 3.5 per cent last month - a record monthly rise - as consumers, undeterred by the credit crunch, spent on food and clothes to enjoy the sunny weather. Barbecue and salad items were particularly popular as millions of Britons dined al fresco.
The rise in sales was the biggest since the Office for National Statistics (ONS) began collecting the data in 1986, and came after two consecutive monthly declines. Analysts, who had forecast a 0.1percent fall in sales, were stunned by the data. Howard Archer, chief UK economist of Global Insight, said that the figures were astounding, and Philip Shaw, chief economist for Investec, said exceptional weather had led to a devil-may-care shopping spree.
Fashionistas were less surprised, saying that the first sign of sun had prompted spending by women whose summer wardrobes had been empty after a miserable season last year. Mulberry, noted for handbags that can cost up to £1,250, said yesterday that it had yet to see any sign of a slowdown.
Some analysts questioned the figures, which contrast with recent surveys that had pointed to a slowdown on the high street. Vicky Redwood, of Capital Economics, said: “The rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes looks pretty implausible.”
However, the ONS defended its findings, saying that its figures include a much larger sample of businesses.
Retail experts said that the worst of the fallout from the credit crunch had yet to hit the shops. Robin Knight, of Kroll, the corporate restructuring company, said: “This is a last hurrah. We have seen for the last two months a lot of senior executives saying how the storm is on its way. Anybody who looks at this and says it's not so bad after all is deluding themselves.”
Stephen Robertson, director-general of the British Retail Consortium, said: “It remains to be seen whether this sun-driven boost is sustained.”
A failure by consumers to rein in their spending could fuel inflation because retailers may be encouraged to pass on their increased costs by raising their prices. George Buckley, economist for Deutsche Bank, said: “The Bank [of England] will want to curb this by increasing interest rates.”
Markets are again predicting that interest rates will rise to 5.5 per cent by November, from 5 per cent now. Geoff Dicks, economist for Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the odds of a rate rise in the next month or two had just got a lot shorter.
The prospect of rate rises will be a further blow to homeowners, who are already struggling with spiralling mortgage bills in the wake of the credit crunch as the value of their home falls.
A lack of activity in the housing market was highlighted by a sharp fall in mortgage lending last month. Gross mortgage lending fell 19per cent to £25.5 billion in May, from £31.5 billion in May last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said yesterday.
The decline in home sales is hitting the Government's already parlous finances as stamp-duty receipts fall. The public sector net borrowing requirement rose to a bigger than expected £11billion in May, from £8.5billion a year earlier, official data showed.
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Good!!!! Rate increase = stronger £ and higher interest on your savings account!!!!. Yes borrowers will be hit, but the higher cost should be offset by lower inflation.
Thimmaiah Machaiah, Maidenhead, UK
The figures are totally misleading. Non-food sales increased in May because the sun shone. They will be low again in June because it's been cool/wet. Food prices have increased but retailers of non-food items, especially clothes, have been unable to increase prices.
s alldridge, Thorp Arch, West Yorks, UK
Why is it considered a good thing that people, like
Mr Brown, are spending their money on cheap garb from the high streetrather than saving it for a rainy day?
Brian Putman, Oxford,
People who think the BoE will raise rates so soon will need to have their heads examined. I sometimes wonder who these analysts are and how can I get their job to make as much money as them! For a start the LIBOR rates are high anyway and they have become so divorced from the base rates
Max, Manchester, UK
I simply don't believe these massaged figures (aka lies). I speak to retailer friends and they say things are very bad and other friends who are basically 'skint' due to all we know about already. Our so called stats. have never been reliable and prone to political whims. Who checks these people?
Victor M., Cricklewood, London,
with ever increasing prices of food / fuel is it any wonder taht sales are rising - the real question is what is happening to sales volumes . people will always borrow for the basics if they are unable to pay from oincome.
Jeff Harvey, bristol,
I'm not afraid of a rise in interest rates.
Alex, Salisbury, UK
This is consumers who are in debt, having a last hurrah. They are in debt so they think sod it, I am going to buy something to make me happy. This phenomenen normally happens about six months before their home is repossessed.
This is not a sign of inflation, it is a precursor to a recession.
james mclean, edinburgh, scotland
Even when corrected for weather differences, the data shows that inflation is the primary economic threat. Prices are rising faster than the credit crunch is hitting spending power. And prices are rising on non-discretionary items, i.e. food. Don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to work that one out.
Michael, London,
Is this shopping spree like the Chinese, described in another article, queuing for petrol before it goes up? Are people really buying things before their price goes up? If so, how will higher interest rates help?
Bill Peter, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
My daughter who lives and works in London suggests that the growth in High street sales reflects the fact that Europeans are taking advantage of the exchange rate and are the ones doing the buying
Liz Brown, Montmartin en Graignes,
stay calm .....we're not in euro 08, think how much money would have been spent in the pub , or trips to austria, or shirts/flags etc etc
so it's spent in the shops instead
can anyone ,anywhere put 2 and 2 together these days ?
guy, amsterdam, holland
Im happy to take the pain of a economic slowdown etc because if it hurts the public then i know its hurting Gordon Brown far more.....
shane, blackburn, england
The prospect of rate rises will only be a 'blow' to borrowers with variable rate tracker mortgages. Borrowers on a fixed rate will not be affected. Genuine homeowners will welcome a rate rise to get better returns on their savings.
Paul, Coventry,
Retail sales will continue to rise due to inflation.If they start to fall,then the economy is in very serious trouble.I think the so-called experts are using the CPI.Real inflation,the price that most people pay for essentials must be well into double figures.
stephen hulton, eure, france
what are the supposed experts talking about, being amazed at the increse in retail spending? Haven't they been shopping one wonders? Can someone please tell them that the prices in the shops have all gone up! I buy basically food, fuel and mortgage. These are all essentials, they have all gone up so consequently I have spent more. It dosent take a bl**dy genius does it? So for God's sake, please don't put something else up too mr King!!
philip cash, sleaford, england