Tom Bawden in New York and Suzy Jagger in Washington
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Lehman Brothers, the bust investment bank, triggered one of the biggest corporate debt defaults in history yesterday as it emerged that the US Federal Reserve is harbouring grave concerns about whether Washington’s $700 billion (£413 billion) bailout fund will avert a financial meltdown.
An auction of Lehman’s bonds yesterday determined that the bank’s borrowings were worth only 8.625 cents on the dollar. The valuation leaves the insurers of the debt a bill of about $365 billion. It is not clear whether the insurers, which are required to settle the bill in the next two weeks, will be able to pay – a development that could further undermine increasingly stressed capital markets.
The $365 billion default came as stock markets around the world suffered one of their worst days since the crash of 11 years ago. Panicking about the prospect of global recession, the FTSE 100 index of leading shares in London crashed within seconds of opening, losing 8.9 per cent of its value, its worse fall since October 1987.
The index recovered to close down 225 points, marking a 5 per cent decline, but more than a fifth was wiped off London shares this week alone. Issues in New York fluctuated wildly as the Dow Jones industrial average slumped by 312.14 points at lunchtime before closing at 8,451.19, down 128.00. Both markets had been scared by losses in Tokyo, where the Nikkei lost 10 per cent of its value.
Amid the mayhem across the world’s stock markets, senior Fed officials now doubt whether Washington’s bailout fund will work unless it is launched in some form in the next two weeks.
The Times has learnt that central bankers in America are anxious that if the Treasury is not able to accelerate the speed at which it launches its rescue scheme, it will have no effect. At the moment, the Treasury, which controls the fund, is working to a five-week schedule to get the rescue package up and running. Under present plans, the bailout fund is not expected to buy its first distressed mortgage-backed bonds until after the US elections on November 4.
It is understood that the Fed believes that this will be too late to help the banks that are suffocating under market conditions. Credit markets have frozen up and many banks have been cut off from being able to borrow from one another.
Mr Paulson’s bailout fund is designed to buy up distressed bonds held by troubled banks. This week the former chairman of Goldman Sachs appointed Neel Kashkari, one of his protégés at the Wall Street bank, to run the fund. Mr Kashkari had already been working closely with Mr Paulson during the negotiations over the passage of the “troubled asset relief programme” on Capitol Hill.
Mr Paulson is also considering a range of other forms of financial assistance, which include the Treasury using taxpayer funds to buy stakes in Wall Street banks. Under such a plan, the cash received in return for the shareholding would provide much-needed capital for the banks.
Lehman’s corporate debt default promises to increase the stress across global credit markets. Sean Egan, of the Egan-Jones ratings agency, said: “This is a killer. Lehman said a month ago that it was in terrific shape and now you can’t even get ten cents on the dollar for its debt.
“It underscores the deep structural flaws in our financial system, knocks confidence in the financial markets and raises the cost of capital. It also demonstrates that we are experiencing not only a crisis of confidence, but a crisis.”
About 350 banks and investors are thought to have insured an estimated $400 billion of Lehman’s debt through complex derivatives, known as credit default swaps. These include Pacific Investment Management, the manager of the world’s largest bond fund, Citadel, the US hedge fund, and American International Group, the insurer that the US Government recently bailed out with two loans totalling about $123 billion.
The Times has learnt that the US Treasury has been overwhelmed with requests from executives of other beleaguered sectors who are seeking a similar bailout scheme for themselves. It is thought that representatives from the US car and airline industries have approached the Government for assistance. It is understood that Mr Paulson does not believe that it is his job to help them. Rather, he is intent on addressing the root problems of the financial crisis.
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When Enron failed it was due to dodgy derivatives and off-balance sheet accounting. Now we are simply discovering that the whole banking sytem is actually just another gigantic Enron.
Richard, Salford, Manchester
Stanford business school just doubled its capacity at the wrong time, I fear. How can a new MBA even get their money back on the tuition, let alone make enough for a posh estate in the Hamptons?
Dick Herzog, Palo Alto, US
at this point its a joke like ganging up on a kid at a street corner
gerry fordham, ballindereen co. galway, ireland
I think the bankers and insurance companies are asking for the moon. they have been living beyond their means and now they want government bailouts. Once they do this the gov. will be in their board rooms all the time. Let the markets go bust and start all over. Clean house and start again.
merle ayres, Humboldt, USA
Nick. The insurers have to either pay the difference between 100% and 8% or (b) pay 100% and receive 8%. Therefore the insurers cannot just buy the bonds at 8% they need to pay the insured the balance of the value. The big problem: The total insured is leveraged by "x" more than real debt LB issued.
CDS Wizard, London,
Its simple, in our monetary system there exists a money supply that is created completely by debt that must be paid, but the interest that is expected back on top of that debt just doesnt exist in the money supply so its like a game of musical chairs. The boom bust cycle is inevitable. Who gains?
Roger, London, UK
Yes Nicholas but why would you sell your bonds for 8.625 cent if you have them insured up to 100 cent?
This is going to destory a lot of the insurers
Robert, Limerick, Ireland
Stupid house buyers met stupid bankers, a marriage made in hell. Don't blame the bankers alone, blame human greed. Capitalism is the least bad form of government, because it guarantees freedoms and mostly works....mostly, I said.
Paul Freeman, London, England
Anil,
Agreed. A system which could hold those to account when they mess up would be a start.
Jeremy Poynton, Frome, United Kingdom
So, if I've understood this correctly:
The bonds were guaranteed by 350 banks and investors - who no doubt took a handsome commission for doing so - and now they don't know if they can pay?
Why was this allowed, what were the regulators doing?
AndyN, Reading,
So let's be clear about this.
We were told that 'we had to bail out Lehman's.'
Why? Because the private sector valued Lehman's lendings at 8.625 cents to the dollar.
Right, so the taxpayer funds 91.375%, huh?
No. Those who INSURED LEHMAN'S do that.
Financial experts?
Hmm......
Rhys Jaggar, Leeds, UK
"May you live in interesting times."
For further explanation, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times.
Bill, Ann Arbor, USA
So if the insurance pays the shortfall on lehman's debt will that make if a viable company again?
Or where will that money be distributed? Bet some goes on bonuses!
bill, cornwall,
There is something rotten in the current financial set up. Lehmans caused this economic crises and yet they will make millions each for going bust. I think our political leaders are thives and they are colluding with the bank robbers. It is time there is an independent investigation into all this.
roy, Stockport, UK
Capitalist believe you can get ahead, socialist believe you can break even, and mystics believe you can get out of the game. Ohmmmmmmmmm
Jim, Columbus , US
'Washington has grave concerns' re $700bn TARP!
Well there is a surprise. I have read that this will cost the USA a minimum of $4trillion. Of course this will strengthen the Dollar as it is a mere 35% of GDP!
We are all being lied to and we will all suffer badly. What an utter shambles.
MGrelton, Bath, UK
I agree with Chris of Ashford. I also think that we have been subjected to a fraud so massive, that all of the other shady dealings on this planet put together, since the dawn of time, pale into insignificance.
E J Murray, Kerry, Ireland.
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Chris, London,
There is a saying "capitalism is bad but communism is worse" We are all watching horrors of capitalism now.
At this time I really do not know which system is good for the ordinary citizens of the world?
anil Hirlekar, Pune, India
Proof beyond doubt ! None of the banks know or understand their own worth, let alone the value of anything else they touch. Time for a major clearout, but who will do it ? Bank chiefs hardly ever show their faces, and when they do - e.g. HBOS , their words/sentences do not make any sense !
John Fisher, Edinburgh,
I hope that all this is going to lead to some fraud charges.
Chris, Ashford, Middx, England
It will be interesting to watch which sectors of which economies are "allowed" to fail by their governments, and which will be "saved". Place your bets please...
Alex Hamilton, New York NY, USA
''An auction of Lehmans bonds yesterday determined that the banks borrowings were worth only 8.625 cents on the dollar.''
So they cannot afford to make payment of 100% value of the bond,,yet they can actually buy the bond for 8.625 cents on the dollar.
Seems easy, buy the bonds at 8.625 cent
Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, Shropshire, United Kingdom