John Penman
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FOR most management consultants, the trickiest decision they face is where to have lunch. For Gavin Jones and Adrian Green, things are a bit more complicated. And that includes where to have lunch.
Last week Jones was in Helmand, the Afghan province. A few weeks ago he and Green were in the Iraqi port city of Basra. Their role, and that of their consultancy firm Upper Quartile, is to help set up the post-conflict economic environment in both countries and attract investment.
It may seem a thankless task, but Jones and Green obviously enjoy the challenge and claim that, in Iraq, things have improved a great deal.
“The situation [in Iraq] is very different from nine months ago,” said Jones from the relative safety of Upper Quartile’s offices in Edinburgh. “I am not saying it’s totally safe, but the level of violence has dropped a great deal.”
Nevertheless, pictures of them in flak jackets surrounded by armed guards suggest a far from normal environment. If it unnerves them, it doesn’t show.
It is their job, as part of the provincial reconstruction team set up by the British government, to persuade people and companies to invest and set up in Iraq as it develops its economy.
They have been in similar situations before, such as after the conflict in the Balkans, but admit that things are very different in Iraq. A lack of basic infrastructure means it is a blank slate for investors. “Name a business and there is an opportunity,” said Jones.
The economic outlook for Basra is good. The province holds 80% of Iraq’s oil reserves and is home to Iraq’s only deep sea port, with trade routes to the Gulf. According to the local Basra Development Commission, the region offers opportunities for investment in oil and gas development, agro- processing, construction and airport and ports development.
“The country has little or no modern infrastructure in terms of getting the oil out of the ground,” said Jones. “They have just two drilling rigs in the whole country and are using technology that is 20 years old. Although it is known that Iraq has at least 23% of the world’s oil reserves, they have no real idea of just how much oil is there.”
A couple of notable examples aside, the number of British firms in Iraq is very small. Weir Group, the Scottish engineering firm, is just one company that has ruled out Iraq because of security fears.
Earlier this year, Upper Quartile hosted a visit to Aberdeen by some of the Iraqis involved in regenerating Basra. There was interest, but Green believes UK companies have a short window of opportunity.
“They got a very positive response but the case remains that British companies are not taking up the chance to invest and the more they stay away, many other countries are moving in,” he said.
“If there is one big difference between Iraq and other countries we have been in after a conflict, it is that Iraq has money. There is a budget surplus and they want to spend it. They need to spend it.”
Green says UK firms have an advantage. “The UK is held in high regard in Basra and not just because of the way the British military handled things. The people remember British housing projects in the 1930s which are still standing.”
Upper Quartile’s efforts centre on short-term, high-impact economic development work and longer-term policy development as well as legislative changes required in the business environment.
“It may sound odd but there’s even a real opportunity for tourism,” said Jones. “Iraq has three of the four most visited tourist sites in the region but there is very little tourism infrastructure, especially in terms of hotels.”
That may be a hard sell just now, but one thing is certain: as times get tough here, there are fewer signs of financial problems in the oil-rich region.
“You do not detect signs of the credit crunch in the Middle East — and as the Iraqis take greater control over their own affairs, they are going be a major player,” said Jones.
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