Steve Hawkes, Retail Correspondent
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After record petrol prices, energy bills and the ever-higher cost of the supermarket basket, consumers now face the biggest price increases on non-food items such as T-shirts, shoes and sofas for more than a decade.
Retail executives and City analysts said yesterday that sterling's collapse against the euro and the dollar meant that price rises of more than 6 per cent were possible on clothing next spring, when supply contracts are renegotiated.
Analysts said that the inflationary pressure could put a huge strain on clothing retailers' profit margins, given that many pay in dollars when sourcing most of their product from Asia. The dollar surged to £1.7996 against sterling on Monday - its highest since April 2006.
The cost of freight has risen, while brokers fear that cotton prices could climb by 20 per cent over the coming year. Moreover, there is also a bottleneck in Beijing, where manufacturing plants that closed for the Olympic Games are struggling to clear a backlog of orders.
After record petrol prices, energy bills and the ever-higher cost of the supermarket basket, consumers now face the biggest price increases on non-food items such as T-shirts, shoes and sofas for more than a decade.
Retail executives and City analysts said yesterday that sterling's collapse against the euro and the dollar meant that price rises of more than 6 per cent were possible on clothing next spring, when supply contracts are renegotiated.
Analysts said that the inflationary pressure could put a huge strain on clothing retailers' profit margins, given that many pay in dollars when sourcing most of their product from Asia. The dollar surged to £1.7996 against sterling on Monday - its highest since April 2006.
The cost of freight has risen, while brokers fear that cotton prices could climb by 20 per cent over the coming year. Moreover, there is also a bottleneck in Beijing, where manufacturing plants that closed for the Olympic Games are struggling to clear a backlog of orders.
One chief executive told The Times: “I've just been to see a supplier who's been away for two weeks and can't believe how much sterling has fallen. We've also got factories quoting us price increases of 30 per cent for this season as they try to recover the higher energy costs. Only electrical products seem to be untouched. Even wood's going up.
“The food retailers have had this for the past 12 to 18 months, but it's starting to hit us. There's going to be a correction.”
The growing inflationary pressure is yet another blow for the Bank of England, whose Monetary Policy Committee meets today to set interest rates for September.
Its decision will be announced tomorrow and economists are convinced that the cost of borrowing will be left unchanged at 5 per cent, given fears that a rate cut would push the cost of living even higher.
Inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in July as food-price inflation hit a 28-year high of 13.7 per cent.
The British Retail Consortium said last month that inflation was beginning to creep into non-food products after years of lower prices as retailers reaped the benefits of low-cost production in China.
Analysts said yesterday that stores with a heavy reliance on the Far East faced yet more margin pressure in 2009. Richard Chamberlain, of JPMorgan, said he believed that Next would come under particular pressure, since 60 per cent of its product was sourced from Asia.
Matthew McEachran, a Kaupthing analyst, said: “Inflation is clearly a reality for the non-food guys - it's quantifying it that's the problem.
“I think it is already starting to show through in prices on the shelf. If the non-food retailers are able to pass it on to the customers, then it will be great news for them, but in the eye of a downturn it's going to be difficult.”
One company executive said: “The dollar could have a big impact, but it will all be about how well you're hedged. If you've only got a short hedge in place, then it could be a big problem.”
Debenhams and French Connection said in March that a 40 per cent surge in cotton prices meant that Chinese clothing suppliers were seeking price increases of up to 10 per cent. Cotton fell during the summer but is tipped to climb back towards the 98.45 cents a pound that was reached six months ago.
Higher wages in China, leading to increased demand, have added to inflationary pressures.
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Interest Rates will go up. They have to as Labour face declining tax revenues and rising unemployment. The public defecit will get even worse given Gordon' s addicted to spend spend spend. In order to attract foriegn capital interest rates have got to go up. Its inevitable.
Rupert, London, UK
Market signs are screaming that Interest rates are too low.
Inflation is now expected to hit 300% of target, the pound is heading for Euro parity, LIBOR is de-coupled from Base rates - and still the MPC cross fingers but do nothing.
The MPC responsibility is to the UK people not Brown.
Act.
Pat, Coromandel, NZ