Camilla Cavendish
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For the past year London has felt like two worlds. The credit crunch turned bankers in Canary Wharf and the City into Ancient Mariners, prophesying doom more and more urgently to friends in other parts of town who just yawned and turned away from their glittering, self-pitying eyes. Those friends - marketing people, lawyers, headhunters - went on hiring, filling smart restaurants and generally feeling pretty buoyed up by a healthy stock market that seemed as deaf to the Ancient Mariners' message as they were. Until now.
It is as if we have been in a state of suspended animation, like cartoon characters frozen in mid-air after jumping off the cliff. Now gravity is winning. Brits are cancelling foreign holidays. Housebuilders such as Bovis and Barratt are slashing their workforces by up to 40 per cent. Marks & Spencer is suddenly unexpectedly empty. The FTSE 100 is on the slide, despite being buffered by mining and oil stocks, which have rarely had it so good. The credit crunch is hitting home.
A bleak year is ahead. Some of the pain is a necessary correction. House prices had to come down from their fantastical peak. First-time buyers may no longer be able to get on the ladder without a bigger deposit, but at least prices may return to saner levels, if they can find anything for sale.
What is depressing is how the British authorities seem to have compounded the effect of the slowdown. Bankers in many countries played games with what the investor Warren Buffett shrewdly called “weapons of financial mass destruction”, lending too much against hopelessly inflated assets.
But the British played some of the wildest games. British banks hold roughly £640 billion more in customer loans than customer deposits. That is more leveraged up, over equity, than any US bank is legally allowed to be.
The regulators who allowed this to happen were once admired for their pragmatism. Now they are derided around the world for their sloppiness. I meet British bankers who say that they are routinely embarrassed, in meetings from Germany to China, by gibes about the uselessness of the London authorities. Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, brought a stern message to London last week: that the regulators need to get a grip. It is extraordinary that he felt that message was needed, seven months after queues of frightened pensioners brought down Northern Rock.
But it was. On Tuesday Bradford & Bingley executives came close to losing their shirts. (They seem to have discarded their bowler hats three years ago, along with their common sense, when they decided to hand out mortgages without asking borrowers to prove their income). For months, the hapless B&B management had been denying the obvious need for fresh capital. Yet the Financial Services Authority limply failed to get action. The US authorities have quietly ensured that more than 40 banks have recapitalised, to shore up the economy. Their UK equivalents had too little sense of urgency. But time is the enemy of confidence, and confidence is the only currency that matters in a downturn.
Bradford & Bingley will survive. But this is about more than one feckless institution. Financial services are one of Britain's greatest export products. They account for almost a third of the economy, twice as much as manufacturing. Our financial acumen is one of the best hopes we have of being able to keep our footing in a global economy in which power is shifting from West to East. The foolish behaviour of our banks and regulators is actually accelerating that shift. Banks that blew giant holes in their balance sheets out of greed are filling them with international capital, including secretive government funds from the Middle East and Asia. The China Investment Corporation now owns 9.9 per cent of Morgan Stanley. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority owns 4 per cent of Citigroup. Qatari and Dubai funds own a third of the London Stock Exchange.
These investments are not necessarily sinister. They are in part a reflection of fortuitous timing: as the credit crunch has drained cash from the City and Wall Street, rising oil prices have spawned a geyser of Arab money looking for a profitable home. It's a fair trade: we pay more for our petrol and get investment back into our companies, although that investment should be more transparent. But I meet open-minded, well-travelled financiers who are concerned about the motives of Russian and Chinese investments. They fear that while these countries are interested in capitalist profits, they are ultimately unsympathetic to many of the freedoms that underpin the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism.
This is an unfashionable view, only whispered in financial circles, because we have benefited so much from global capital markets and because capital is supposed to be non-ideological. But these questions matter, because the scale of the shift will be phenomenal. Some economists predict that within five years, sovereign wealth funds may be able to buy a third of all the equities listed on global stock markets.
It was Karl Marx who suggested that capitalism sows the seeds of its own destruction. He, too, is out of fashion. And he was far too eager to be proved right. But ultimately capitalism does depend on trust.
There is little we can do about the inevitable rise in prices, now that China has come to the end of its deflationary boom. But it is a terrible shame that we are squandering our reputation for competence in the one sector in which we could most easily have been pre-eminent in the new world order.
The latest news is more than a grim blip in the economic cycle. It heralds a fundamental shift in economic power that has been hastened by idiots. “I will tell you how to become rich,” Mr Buffett once said. “Be fearful when others are greedy.” We were all greedy together. We were complacent. Now it hurts.
Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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And what about the accountants? How on earth did they sign off banks' accounts as a "true & fair view", when so many of the banks' mortgage backed security "assets" were impossible to value & are now virtually worthless!
I see lots of massive legal cases for the next 20 years!
Alistair Nicholls, Manchester, UK
When Buffett said be fearful when others are greedy, he wasn t thinking about me but I exist in the context of a massive greed. In such a situation there is no logic and intransigence becomes the only option. Greed can paralyse rationality.
Henry Percy, London, UK
the whole banking crisis has brrn just one big pyramid scheme. banks selling on debt to each other, while taking a cut along the way. it finally crashed as all of these schemes do when the last ones holding the debt could no longer pass them on. i thought thid was illegal.
stephen burgwin, birmingham, uk
It is indeed wrong to presume Sovereign Funds operate as a private fund would. A Sovereign Fund would consider purchasing and trading with home suppliers whereas a private fund would just aim for the best supplier. A Sovereign Fund would also consider National interest. We need to consider our own.
Roger Thornhill, London, UK
He who pays the piper calls the tune. Cavendish is right to sound the alarm about providers of capital who have an agenda which is inimicable to Western democratic values.
Chie, Tokyo, Japan
I have no sympathy with these finanaciers as I am sure few people do, the Banking world has reaped what it has sewn!
However what really beggers belief is the total lack control the FSA has over the situation and its next useless authority of Bof Ethat has been so poorly supported by a Government
Guy Mapplebeck, London , UK
This Credit Crunch has been indicated more than 18 months ago. Britain choose to do nothing.
The US is expecting 150 - 300 banks to become insolvent, and more than a year ago, brought retired receivers out of retirement, and put them back on the payroll. The day the US paid salaries - we knew...
Sally Ann Cooke, newport, South Wales
I lost much of my pension pot with the Equitable Life debacle & most of my hair & peace of mind over N. Rock in which I had shares & savings. Why? Because the unfit-for-purpose regulator & G. Brown led Treasury failed to protect me. Now I learn that the worst is still to come! Brown must go now.
Tony, LONDON, UK
Excellent analysis Camilla. Perception is reality both for consumer and financial market confidence.
Brand Britian is in danger but , as I am sure Stuart Rose would be the first to admit, we will bounce back. As for a transfer of power from east to west, it's more an long overdue redistribution.
Nick Murray-Leslie, London, UK
B&B Execs are miles away from losing their shirts, unless, by "losing their shirts" you mean "going into early retirement with an enormous payoff".
JonB, Manchester, UK
For 5 yrs I have blogged of the danger of a massive build up of unsupported debt, and not just the loony financial institutions but also the loony left wing government. I know nothing about finance but have what I consider a little common sense. As for the FSA I know no one with a good word for them
D Case, Newquay,
Am I wrongly remembering events but did our chancellor and prime minister avoid taxing high worth individuals in the city in order that their 'talent' did not migrate overseas?
Perhaps their talent should have been debated and taxed given the results it has produced for the economy and the public
PRt, York, UK
The problem is not capitalism per se but the financial institutions who see investment as a kind of pyramid scheme, everyone just keeps betting up and then we're supposed to be surprised when the bubble bursts spectacularly. Cheap credit will be the ruin of western civilization. Back to basics plz
John, Limerick City, Ireland
The FSA have been too busy harrassing harmless little independent financial advisers to trouble themselves with the banks. Regulators tend to go for the easy targets unless they are themselves properly supervised. It's all about maximum productivity in ticking boxes.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
When examples are made of the wrong people e.g. the Deputy Governor of the BoE rather than King, incompetence will continue as the "leaders" know they are safe in their jobs, they simply are allowed to sacrifice a relative minion.
We pay hugely for their mistakes and also pay their huge salaries
Janet, London,
I agree with Brian Lewis' comments. The Directors' Remuneration Report of our, so called, Mutual Building Societies is nauseating. A certain greedy and unethical Director named Williamson got away with £3,219,000 in 2007! The total for the same Building Society's seven Directors was £8,586,000!
Hefin Williams, Porthmadog, Gwynedd
So whats new? What isent broken in moden day Britan, Banks the Arm, God we could even end the union soon thanks to scots mp's!
thanks to Labour the whole country is broken and now we have a broken leader thanks to our broken system of goverment, we need radical change, but we wont get it in time
Mr W Jones, Liverpool, England
Twice in seven years there has been a collapse in share values as the next big thing turned out to be a myth. Banks gambled because there were no decent investment opportunities. Productivity is producing poor investmet opportunities - just as Marx and the 1951 film Man in a White suit predicted..
Eddie Reader, birmingham, england
Our regulators are weak? What did the author expect them to do that would have prevented this helter skelter? I've watched so many regulatory cockups over the last two decades and still I wonder what their creators expect of them. Regulation is bust, always has been. All it does is cause mayhem.
Evan Owen, Harlech, Wales
Marx correctly identified the problem of capitalism. He was only
wrong in his solution. Integrity and moral values are essential
elements of a successful capitalist economy. Here in the US,
we have a Congress that was bought by the home mortgage
banks, thus greed went unchecked.
John, Placentia, Republic of California
Does the author when she says "our reputation for competence in the one sector in which we could most easily have been pre-eminent in the new world order," mean scamming anyone and everyone?
Glynn, Kingston,
The problem of rewarding merit in the financial sector of the economy has become grave as we have allowed huge salaries to be paid to individuals whose only merit is to be able to manipulate million $ exchanges over weeks. Who now cares for the next 50 years? No one is now in charge.
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines