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The credit crunch tightened its grip on families last night as two big mortgage lenders raised their rates or withdrew deals, the price of oil hit another record and figures showed that new housebuilding projects are about to fall to their lowest level since the Second World War.
There are growing fears about funding shortages. High street banks, which have been battered by the credit crunch, are asking shareholders for extra cash to plug the gaps caused by losses they suffered as a result of the American sub-prime crisis.
Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Bradford & Bingley and Barclays are all set to offer shareholders added stakes in return for extra cash.
Last night Nationwide Building Society increased its mortgage rates by half a point for the second time in two weeks. Borrowers with a 5 per cent stake in their homes now pay nearly 8 per cent for new deals. Barclays stopped offering two-year fixed-rate home loans — the most popular type of mortgage.
The lack of ready cash is exacerbating the mortgage drought as banks hang on to their money rather than lend it to their rivals. The rate at which banks lend to each other is almost at a record high.
Average two-year mortgage rates have risen to 6.75 per cent, the highest level since 1998, when the Bank base rate was above 7 per cent. The base rate today is 5 per cent.
There are concerns that the housing downturn will drag down a large corner of the economy with it.
Work will start on 147,700 houses across the UK this year — the fewest since the war ended in 1945 — making it almost impossible for the Government to meet its housing targets, according to the Construction Products Association.
The CBI gave warning of widespread job losses in the construction and retail industries. Workers in bars, restaurants and hotels are also more susceptible to losing their jobs as consumers rein in their spending.
Unemployment rose at the fastest rate in two years in April, when an extra 20,000 people began claiming benefits, and the CBI forecasts that by 2010 nearly 200,000 people will have lost their jobs.
The soaring cost of oil has been blamed for the surge in inflation. The price of a barrel yesterday reached its highest level yet, at nearly $140, as traders brushed aside a decision by Saudi Arabia to start pumping crude at its fastest rate since 1981.
The increase in production comes before an energy summit of producer and consumer countries in Jedda this weekend. Market experts said that the increase was not large enough to have a significant impact on the physical market for oil.
Gordon Brown described the trebling of world oil prices as “the most worrying situation in the world” at the moment. The Prime Minister called for “long-term dialogue” between oil consumers and producers, and said that countries would have to increase nuclear power and renewable energy capacity to reduce the world’s dependence on oil.
Economists fear that the pressure on families could spark demands for wage rises. Tanker drivers are threatening to strike again this week as they demand bigger salaries. A widespread increase in wages could push prices even higher, further stoking inflation.
Economists said that figures being released today were likely to show that inflation rose to 3.1 per cent last month. This will force Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, to write to the Chancellor to explain why inflation is so far above the 2 per cent target. The CBI expects inflation to hit 3.8 per cent this year.
About 1.5 million people will come to the end of short-term mortgage deals this year and will almost certainly have to pay more. A borrower who does not qualify for a deal with a rival lender will have to pay his or her own lender’s expensive standard variable rate or sign up to a new deal at whatever rate the lender demands.
Aaron Strutt, of Chase de Vere Mortgage Management, an indepedent mortgage broker, said that the market was becoming almost impossible for borrowers to navigate. “Rates are shooting through the roof,” he said. “More and more borrowers are in a position where they cannot switch or take out a new mortgage. Some mortgage deals have vanished completely for the majority of borrowers.”
Mortgage approvals for new borrowers fell by 36 per cent in April, compared with a year earlier, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.
Steve Turner, of the House Builders Federation, said that this slide in mortgage lending had hit construction companies severely. “The lack of mortgages is the be-all and the end-all of the problem,” he said. “It’s like the cart before the horse. In the 1990s the economic conditions dragged down the housing market. Now it could be the other way around.”
The Government has pledged to create three million homes in England before 2020, and has promised to increase the number of homes available each year by 240,000 by 2016. But experts say that it will miss these targets as the housing market stalls. About 175,360 houses were completed in England last year, and that figure is expected to fall further.
A spokesman for the Department for Communities and Local Government said that building companies needed to ignore the market conditions and concentrate on the future. “It is essential for housebuilders to base their decisions on longer term trends.”
Caroline Flint, the Housing Minister, recently announced a £200 million fund to renovate empty homes. But Noble Frances, of the Construction Products Association, said it was not enough. “It will fund about 1,500 houses. It doesn’t go very far.”
The share prices of big construction companies have halved over the past week, but yesterday Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt all rose slightly after vague talk that institutional investors would pump money into the sector.
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I'm not surprised a bit, i lived in London/UK for a while and was amazed at what was going on in the housing market and how much money everyone spent. I thought than this is unreal and yes it shows now it is. Good luck paying the bills guys.
ed, london, Uk
People have had it too good for too long. I have no sympathy people should tightened their belts, stop shopping for shopping sake and face the reality that they need to start paying for the true cost of natural resources.
Jackie, London,
But why does it cost £133K to renovate one house - there are dozens of programmes on Tv restoring properties - even grade II listed ones for far less than that. Who is being mugged here? Perhaps the government, local and national, would be better helping people to renovate their own houses.
Chris, Didcot, Oxon
The UK is rapidly becoming the sick man of Europe again. Wow, in 2 yrs time we will have Sterling at parity with the Euro, the IMF in, massive trade imbalance, house prices 40% less, high inflation, high unemployment and frequent strikes. I might buy a house again then!
Maritn Grelton, London, UK
When the economy has been grown by credit and the supply of credit dries up,isn't a recession inevitable?Those 2 year fixed rate deals,in effect,allowed people to borrow more than they could afford and allowed house price inflation to get out of control.
stephen hulton, eure, france
I don't think the UK will be the only country to suffer, but I think that the suffering could be great given that Tony Blair gave us an economy built on sand. Long ago they could have taken measures to prevent this but didn't.
duncan, Wokingham,
Until the B of E sets interest rates that relate to the real inflation experienced by families and pensioners, and not the doctored "official rate", then inflation will never be properly tackled. It is obvious,isn't it??
nic, paphos, cyprus
Royal Bank Of Scotland didn't pass on the last interest rate cut and have just informed me that they are raising the rate on my offset mortgage by 0.25%. Inflation is everywhere apart from in my pay packet !
Dave, Reading, UK
Can someone remind me why the government leant the banks so much money? Does anyone really expect the tax payer to see the money returned? I suspect the loan will all be forgotten about in a years time.
Patrick Bateman, London,
With 1.5 million houseowners coming off 2 yr deals this year there is clearly a whole lot more misery to come. Many will not be able to cope with higher repayments which can only mean repossession.
A new culture of couples living with parents could well evolve
V Cooper, Yeovil, UK
Housing starts may be down but we are building more prisions.
Look on the bright side :O)
Alex, Nottingham, Nottingham
Douglas from Northwood you say "along with political leaders who have proven foresight and vision".
Where and who are these people??
All I see is NuLab!
Who said "no more boom and bust" who take a higher % of my earnings than any Government before them, with NEGLIGIBLE RESULTS!
Tim, Birmingham, UK
This is a trend. When journalists get fed up with this they will create a new trend.. & start reporting that of rising house prices. To turn the current situation around we need rallying & optimistic spokespeople from Banks & Newspapers. Propaganda will kindle the flame.
Maurice, Chelmsford, UK
Job losses in construction will accelerate the return of Polish migrants to their homeland and may even lead to some British workers following them to the continent; all of which will reduce the demand for housing, accelerating the price falls brought about by the credit tab drying up.
Paul, Coventry,
Douglas, Are you living in China, Russia or Brazil. I assume it is not the UK as our political leaders, if you can call them that have crushed this once great country. We have spent all the money on non workers and bombs, thats foresight? It will take many years to remedy these cowboys blunders
john, bath,
Why are you all worrying: we have a strong Prime Minister who is taking the correct long-term decisions for the country. He assured us there would be no more boom and bust and the UK is well-placed to weather the storm.
He is also the ex-Chancellor and now PM who's policies got us into the mess.
Donna Walker, Effingham, England
I agree with Douglas, The UK under New Labour is a mighty and resilent economic machine that dispenses jobs and social justice for all, including worthy migrants and asylum seekers from abroad. Enough of this gloomy defeatism and lets accentuate the positive and get back to "Cool Britannia"
Roberta, London, UK
what did we expect? It's market reset. people on a combined wage with their partners of £45k cant afford 150k houses. Dont be silly. did you think it would keep going? "here have a 40 year mortgage!! to pay off your 2 bedroom apartment until your 2 years into your retirement!!" it cant be afforded
samarius, Leeds,
As the banks and building societies cannot borrow enough on the market to finance their loans, they have realised that they must replenish their coffers by offering more attractive savings rates (eg Halifax at 10%), so double-digit mortgage rates are around the corner.
Paul, Coventry,
If only interest rates were neutral since 9/11, we would almost certainly not be in this very precarious situation today. Artificially low rates may have done wonders in the short term but an absolute disaster for the longer term. Lessons to be learnt? No, it's failure to learn from history
cww, suffolk,
"A spokesman for the Department for Communities and Local Government said that building companies needed to ignore the market conditions..." Brilliant ! With such a firm grasp of economic reality we have nothing to fear under a NuLabour govt!
Robin, Hassocks,
I assume that's sarcasm Douglas? heh, good one!
Sebastian, Manchester, England
Whinge, whinge. A period of belt-tightening in these times of instant gratification is good for everyone and if you can't ride out the bad times then you spent too much during the good times. Tough luck chums.
Olly, London (Central),
everyone should stop worrying. the labour government influx of highly skilled hardworking immigrants will save us.
bob townsend, wirral,
I think stop with the panic mongering already. Most people aren't actually noticing much of a difference in expenses so far and if people have to stay put in the same house for a bit longer instead of constantly moving up the propety ladder - so what ! Owning a house isn't the be all and end all
susan, glasgow,
'This wretched government' will prove its worth by not attempting any 'quick fix'. The 'house price boom' has existed only because we have all managed to cheat each other,bidding up illusory 'values'. Now the scam must be left to die.House prices must end where they end, with no interference.
eric campbell, harrogate, uk
Douglas, political leaders with foresight? Vision maybe, because words cost nothing. Foresight means having a
plan to pay for and deliver a "pledge" (the free bit) e.g. to increase the number of houses being built.
Jon Cavendish, London, UK
Douglas - oh the sarcasm! Well done. Yup - and guess what these political leaders with vision will do next - raise interests rates!!! That's bound to help things! The true powerless and spineless nature of political and economic "leadership" for the UK has never been so visible!
James, Salisbury, UK
Economic fundamentals are good.......
Chris, Bedford,
Time to go back to building rows of terraced town houses like in northern mill towns with a small front yard big enough to park 1 car on also a rear yard large enough for a shed and a clothes line.
This should be cheaper than £200M on renovating 1500. Time to buy what you can afford not a dream.
Contax, Brigg, N.Lincs.
As Chris Coles mentions Robert Beckman's book 'the downwave' predicted this in the eighties. He was a very successful investor and economist, proving it is possible to make a profit without great risks. Houses in USA are now a fraction of prices here and still going down. Three bed detached £57K !
David Nommaory, Liverpool,
The Oil price surge is caused by 'face to face' unregulated trading by..THE BANKS. This is the next CRUNCH when prices plummet. Make these trades internationaly a not enforceable debt and it will stop.
Don't buy a house until interest prices reach the same level as rental and you should be OK!!!!
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Ladies and gentlemen, I think Douglas in Northwood may have been using Irony.
Government inflation figures are useless because they measure nothing in particular and have been fudged to all hell.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Some decades ago Robert Beckman wrote The Down Wave which predicted this was all going to happen during the 1980's. If he is correct then house prices are now about to fall to pre-1939 levels. In that case there is a long way to go before we see the bottom. Cash is King and a house becomes worthless
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
'Families' this and 'families' that...this affects everyone. Those struggling alone could well have more difficulties than those in larger groups, not to mention less assistance if the you-know-what hits the fan, so what's with the families obsession? Do others not matter?
Jonathan, York, England
Banks ask shareholders for extra cash to cover bad investment losses & set their own inter-bank rates. Oil companies struggle through carteling oil & causing labour problems.
Why are both these type of commercial enterprises still publishing record profits? This is causing the UK high inflation
Conrad, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
To Ian Tinn: many friends of mine who have moved rental properties this year have been able to look round several and nearly named their price to the landlord, rather than having to suffer whatever over-inflated 'market level' the greedy letting agent has suggested.
James, Bristol,
200 million to renovate 2000 houses but Noble Frances, of the Construction Products Association, says it is not enough..that's 100,000 per house!!!!
Paul, Blackpool,
The UK can export hugely to India, as its economy continues to grow at 9 per cent p.a., India depends less on exports for its GDP growth than other significant countries and its Banks have virtually no exposure to the US subprime credit problems.
Indo-UK relations can deliver mutual benefits.
Mr Vipul Thakore, London, UK
People who rent often feel safe, but they are not.
If people cannot buy, they must rent. Increased rental demand, with no fewer rental properties available, will increase rental fees.
Maybe renters should fix their payments while there is time.
Ian Tinn, Slough, England
Inflation is a terrible tax on savers. Negative interest rates are an incentive to seek the safe haven of gold.
Don't wait to buy - buy and wait
Galloping Inflation, Southampton, UK
With our educated masses and a steady hand we will reap our due rewards.
douglas, Northwood,
It is more like punishment time..
Kara Swart, London, UK
Thank you to douglas, Northwood - first real laugh I've had in ages.
Jane, Bath, Avon
Two 0.5% Mortgage rate increases in two weeks, wow!!.
If some borrowers are now paying nearly 8%, how long before Mortgage rates are into DOUBLE figures.
Within six months??.
How many people can afford to pay a 10.5% mortgage every month?. or a 11.75% one!!.
David Diggins, Derby., England.
The house market while significant, is only a part of the ecconomy. Attempting to prop up over-priced houses is an impossible task, but trying (via low interset rates) just undermines Sterling and supercharges oil and food inflation.
Inflation is a real threat to all. Let the house market go.
Mike, Tauranga, New Zealand
Douglas of Northwood, you forgot the stiff upper lip.
Mike, Maidstone, UK
Banking stupidity, greed and the now necessary repairs is the root cause of the impending downward economic spiral in the UK.
D. G. Mitchell, Weinheim, Germany
Neither the official inflation rate nor the BoE interest rate have any connection with the real world at the moment. They have lost credibility and with it inflation expectations. Watch out!
R James, Clifton, uk
Douglas - Northwood - Are you actually living on planet earth or recently woken up from a pleasant dream ? Since when have any of the last two governments shown any kind of foresight and vision ? Name some examples, please !
Daniel, Margate, UK
"Gordon Brown described the trebling of world oil prices as the most worrying situation in the world at the moment"
So people losing their homes because they can't afford a mortgage any longer isn't the 'most worrying' situation? Gordon continues to put the British people in their place.
judy, Liverpool, England
Labour has that reverse Midas touch, gold is transmuted into the contents of that creek where you have lost your paddle!
Alan, Luton,
You are joking Douglas (I hope). "Foresight and Vision" ? These "leaders" have let a credit bubble get out of control and now it has stopped inflating the inevitable consequences arrive. Far better to build an economy on savings than debt. The former goes to production the latter speculation...
Steve Ballmer, Sydney, Australia
But, only a short time ago, Gordon Brown told us that UK was better placed than any economy to withstand a 'downturn'.
Strange, though, how he claimed responsibility for all the apperent good news of the previous 10 years and now none of this seems to be his fault!
Ian, Menorca, spain
Like the game of Monopoly, people at the Mayfair & Park Lane end of the board are largely unaffected. It's the ones nearer 'Old Kent Road' that are being hurt. The rest of us keep landing on the 'Water Works', 'Electric Light' or 'Pay Tax £200'. As for the train stations, their charges are hurting.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
Cost of basic living (fuel, transport, mortgages, food etc) continues to rise, but wages are fixed (otherwise leads to inflation so everything goes up even more) so the high-standard of living we have taken for granted must come down.
In short, we will all feel the pain - start economising now !
Sam Redman, London, UK
These are the joy's of a credit fuelled boom.....
'Golden Browns' economic miricle was little more than a credit bubble - rack up house prices and get everyone to to borrow more money.
When the bubble ends it ends painfully. this is natural adjustment and must happen.
bob, scunthorp,
G.B. considers trippling of oil to be disasterous...........
but he was quite happy with a trippling of house prices.
This is the boom and bust he promised to avoid
dave, alderly edge,
if unemployment rises and there is a shortage of homes will this hopeless government realise that we need to reduce the number of people coming to the UK and perhaps send some home, or are we now also going to have to pay them unemployment benefits as well? Brown useless!
Richard de Gerber, Kingston upon Thames, UK
Large scale investors prepared to take over the construction companies more like; will mean the present equity shareholder will lose all.
The construction companies have supersized debt, negative equity with falling revenues.
Mortgage available = sales revenue; no spare cash and falling income
Goldfinger, Gloucester, UK
So what.
We have a diverse and vibrant population which is well placed to weather the storm, along with political leaders who have proven foresight and vision.
With our educated masses and a steady hand we will reap our due rewards.
douglas, Northwood,
Only a few months into this and the UK looks far worse than the US overall. Inevitable though as the UK was ONLY built on debt during the last New lab decade whereas the US will and has the ability to bounce back.
Paul, London, Canada
We are now in uncharted waters as far as the housing market is concerned. There will be no quick fixes from this wretched government. House prices may well follow in the wake of house builders share prices.
victor, London, United Kingdom
I have got a funny feeling that this isnt going to go away, when this all comes to a head, its going to be huge....
Sam Smith, Southport, UK