Francis Elliott and Gráinne Gilmore
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Homeowners were given assurances but no immediate relief yesterday as house prices fell at the fastest rate in a quarter of a century and the Bank of England decided against cutting the interest rate.
Gordon Brown said that the Government would do all it could to help families and businesses to pull through the global economic downturn. In a speech to the Scottish CBI in Glasgow the Prime Minister said that he was “cautiously optimistic” about Britain’s economy as he sought to repair the political damage caused by Alistair Darling’s claim that the country faced the worst conditions in 60 years.
Mr Brown’s speech was delivered against a bleak backdrop as the latest series of economic indicators showed that property prices had fallen by 12.7 per cent in the past 12 months, wiping more than £25,400 off the value of an average home.
Figures from Halifax show the fastest rate of decline since the bank started its house price index in 1983. The rapid drop in house prices and the threat of recession was not enough, however, to persuade the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote for a rate cut.
Despite a slump in output, the MPC kept rates at 5 per cent in an attempt to control inflation, which reached a 16-month high of 4.4 per cent in July. The Bank has forecast that prices will continue to rise in the coming months, peaking at 5 per cent before the end of the year.
In an implicit criticism of his Chancellor, Mr Brown used his speech to counter claims that Britain was facing the worst conditions since the 1940s. “Undoubtedly we face a challenging period in the British economy, particularly given our position at the heart of the world’s financial markets, and both the Chancellor and I understand the difficulties you face,” he said. “But while never complacent about our economic prospects, I am also cautiously optimistic about the long-term resilience and underlying strengths of the British economy.”
He promised further support for families struggling with rising food and energy bills, with the Government’s much-trumpeted package for tackling fuel poverty expected to be published next week.
While people understood that no national government alone could “put everything right that is creating hardship”, he said that they did look to ministers to take action to help them through difficult times. “We will not let them down,” he said. “We will do what it takes to bring security to families on modest and middle incomes and we will ensure that no one who is prepared to work hard and adapt to change will lose out as a result of global forces.”
The Government’s £200 million mortgage rescue package will do nothing to help borrowers in negative equity. More than 70,000 people have mortgage debt higher than the value of their homes, according to research from Standard & Poor’s, the credit ratings agency, which suggested that each further 1 per cent fall in house prices would push an extra 120,000 borrowers into negative equity. Those in negative equity must sell their home at a loss if they cannot keep up with their mortgage repayments or if they need to move home.
There was a glimmer of hope as some analysts said that a rate cut was more likely if inflation starts to fall later in the year – as has been forecast. Alun Powell, senior economist at HSBC, said: “We expect the MPC to cut rates over the next month or so, which would provide welcome relief to many homeowners.”
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, the economic consultancy, predicted that rates would be cut to 4.75 per cent in November and “significantly further to 3.5 per cent in 2009”.
The average house price is £174,178, just below the threshold for the Government’s new stamp duty regime, which will exempt stamp duty on properties below £175,000.
Halifax said that homeowners in some parts of the country would benefit less than others. Only 12 per cent of homes in London sold for less than £175,000 last year, compared with 75 per cent in the North of England.
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Dave, that spells suicide! Do you realise that current inflation is due to speculation on commodities? Please consider the CORE inflation. Increasing the interest rate what benefit do you think will bring? How much of an increase then? We have a % higher than the rest of the world already!
andrea ceccanti, london,
Dave, it doesn't matter what the MPC do with rates inflation is on the up regardless. Rising rates = severe downturn with mass bankruptcies etc. Lowering rates is the lesser of two evils right now. Low inflation means nothing if there is mass poverty. Deflation is fast becoming the larger fear.
kevin, sleaford,
Andy, yes prices will rise again but only after the market has reached its trough based on sensible lending criteria. That trough could be four to five years away with falls back to mid-1990s levels. After all, average dispoable incomes are falling and not likely to rise for a good few years.
Paul, Coventry,
Rubbish. The Bank of England has to look after inflation 1st, then think about the economy. House price rises/falls should not concern the Bank's judgements given its current remit.
Voting for a cut now is like voting for a rise if inflation was 1% (i.e. 1/2 rather than 2x target) - very stupid!
Dave, Reading, UK
The press need to stop doom & gloom and report this great news! The imminent collapse of house prices is great for the majority of Britain. When prices have re-adjusted downwards by 50-60% to pre-bubble levels, then housing will be affordable for the masses, not just the rich.
jon, london,
Press coverage has absolutely nothing to do with the house price crash. It is a market, there was a bubble, and now it is bursting. Get over it. Suggesting that if only the press would stop printing the negative figures then the market would be back to boom is ridiculous.
Peter, Basingstoke,
I do wish that in these articles it was mentioned that the bank has no remit to do anything but control inflation. So they are not ignoring the slump in leaving rates at 5%, they are just doing their job.
Mike, Woodbridge,
I agree with Andy. The biggest problem is the media perpetuating the whole situation.
What most people don't realise is the negative press coverage has nothing to do with the housing market, but more to with trying to topple an already fragile government.
The press should be more responsible.
Rob, Oxford, England
When are journalists / politicians going to stop pretending they are experts on housing market? All this doom and gloom is knocking value off their homes too! Demand for home ownership is still high - the planning system will continue to prevent the levels of supply needed. Price rises will return.
Andy, Bournemouth,
Inflation + Recession = Stagflation.
Sunny, Coventry,
If inflation was really 4.4% then much of this article would be valid.
The problem however is that real inflation for most people is far above this figure.
How can the B of E address inflation when it is not being
honestly stated.
Answer--it can't!
Newspapers should focus on this fact far more
jackie, paphos, cyprus