WITH three grands prix remaining, Lewis Hamilton has a seven-point lead in the world championship over Ferrari’s Felipe Massa. The Briton could now finish just behind Massa in all of those races and still win the title.

Let’s not forget, though, that late last season Hamilton was 16 points clear yet failed to win the championship. He has that salutary experience to lean upon and it was clear in Singapore last weekend that he settled for third place and guaranteed points rather than push for second. His lead has been built despite several errors. At Bahrain he forgot to put his car in launch mode, made a terrible start and later crashed into the back of Fernando Alonso. There was the pit lane traffic-light crash into the back of Kimi Raikkonen in Canada and the resulting penalty at the next race in Magny-Cours led to an arguably harsher penalty when Hamilton tried to compensate for his disadvantage.

I am not race steward material because I believe Hamilton should have been applauded at Spa for a magnificent win in challenging conditions rather than being demoted to third, benefiting two drivers who never even saw the back of him during the race.

Looking at Massa’s season, he has suffered chiefly through an engine failure in Melbourne and another just three laps short of what would have been a terrific victory in Hungary. Were it not for an unfortunately timed safety car, he would almost certainly have won in Singapore last weekend. Their ups and downs have just about cancelled each other out and either would make a worthy world champion this season.

Massa has continually raised his game this year, driving some supreme races. Watching him dominating in Singapore, before his Ferrari left the pits with part of the fuel hose still attached to it, he was clearly on top of his game. Looking at the three remaining races, we’re likely to have a wet Japanese Grand Prix in Fuji, just as we did last year when Hamilton was in a class of his own with a victory we would all love on our racing CVs. He will travel to Japan with great confidence but the form book hasn’t proved too reliable this season. At the moment I think the Ferrari is slightly faster and Hamilton’s oversteering, tail-out style, while beautiful to watch, is an indication that he’s having to wring the car’s neck to remain competitive.

At Singapore the Ferrari had the measure of McLaren over the bumps and kerbs, which is something of a first. We’ve seen Hamilton succumb again to pressure recently, with bad decisions and errors in qualifying at both Monza and Singapore, although he tends to recover better now. Overall, I would still put my money on Hamilton for Fuji. It’s probably safer than in the bank, anyway.

China, just seven days later, I marginally see as Ferrari territory. Shanghai has a very long straight and, given the Ferrari’s prodigious straight-line speed and strong previous form there, Massa, with teammate Raikkonen backing him up by trying to take further points away from Hamilton, is a serious contender.

Hamilton must head to the final round in Brazil with a reasonable comfort zone between him and Massa. It is the Brazilian’s home track and with fervent local support he is mighty around there. Hamilton was error-prone at the corresponding race last year. McLaren need to keep the pressure off the final race by getting the job done in Japan and China. It must be said that they are performing very well as a team.

As we approach the closing stages of a head-to-head title fight, the two main contenders always seem to lift their game. There was no surprise when Massa and Hamilton shared the front row in Singapore. They dig deep and their whole focus is on the title, while their teammates fall into supporting roles. Of the two, Raikkonen looks much more likely to take points from Hamilton than Heikki Kovalainen is from Massa. It is likely to rain during some or all of the remaining grands prix and this makes racing more of a lottery. But unless Massa fails to finish in one of the next two races, the title fight will surely go down to the final event in Brazil.

Hamilton must use his prodigious skill and a new-found calm under extreme pressure to protect his seven-point lead. Championship advantages can swing faster than the opinion polls in a US election but at this stage the young Briton has the points in the bag for comfort.